Update (July 2026): TSMC’s June 2026 revenue is now confirmed at NT$442.7 billion — up 67.9% year-over-year and 6.16% month-over-month — matching what the monthly-revenue math below pointed to ahead of the July 16 Q2 report. For the full monthly breakdown and what it signals for AI demand, see our TSMC June 2026 revenue deep-dive.
Published July 10, 2026 (KST). Market figures are as of the July 9 Taipei close; company figures are from official TWSE filings and TSMC’s Q1 2026 results release.
TSMC (TWSE: 2330, NYSE: TSM) holds its second-quarter 2026 earnings conference on Thursday, July 16, at 14:00 Taipei time (2:00 a.m. Eastern). It is the most-watched earnings event in Asia and, given TSMC’s grip on AI accelerator manufacturing, arguably the most important supply-side data point in the world right now. Here is what is already knowable before the call — and what actually gets decided on the day.
The Taiwan quirk: Q2 revenue is (almost) public before the call
Taiwan-listed companies must disclose monthly revenue by the 10th of the following month. That means two of the quarter’s three months are already on the record:
| Month (2026) | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| April | NT$410.7B | — |
| May | NT$417.0B | +30.1% |
| June | due imminently | — |
| Jan–May cumulative | NT$1,961.8B | +30.0% |
Management guided Q2 revenue to US$39.0–40.2 billion (at an assumed 31.7 TWD per dollar, roughly NT$1,236–1,274 billion). April plus May already total NT$827.7 billion. The arithmetic is simple: June needs to land around NT$408–447 billion for TSMC to hit its own guidance range — in other words, a month roughly in line with April and May gets there comfortably. When the June print drops (the statutory deadline is July 10), the market will effectively know Q2 revenue days before the conference. Watch that number first; the earnings call then becomes about margins and the future, not the top line.
The baseline: where TSMC stands after Q1
Per the company’s official Q1 2026 release: consolidated revenue of NT$1,134.1 billion, net income of NT$572.5 billion, and diluted EPS of NT$22.08. Guidance for Q2 called for gross margin of 65.5–67.5% and operating margin of 56.5–58.5% — extraordinary levels for a manufacturer, and the clearest single measure of how much pricing power AI demand has handed the company.
One under-appreciated tailwind: the guidance assumed 31.7 TWD per US dollar, but the currency has traded weaker — around 32.1–32.2 in recent sessions. TSMC bills mostly in dollars and reports in TWD, so a weaker TWD than assumed flatters both revenue and margins, all else equal.
What actually gets decided on July 16
- Q3 guidance — the AI demand referendum. With Q2 largely known in advance, the forward number is the event. Any signal on AI accelerator orders, CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity, and whether demand visibility extends into 2027 will move not just TSMC but the entire global AI supply chain.
- Gross margin trajectory. Whether the 65%+ margin regime guided for Q2 can be sustained — and what management says about the cost factors it has discussed on past earnings calls, such as the ramp-up of its overseas fabs.
- 2026 capital expenditure. Any revision to the capex plan is read as a direct statement about how much AI demand TSMC believes in. Capex up = demand conviction.
- Node mix commentary. What share of revenue comes from the most advanced nodes, and any updates management offers on its next-generation process roadmap — the pipeline that shapes the coming years.
The market setup: priced near perfection, positioned with caution
TSMC’s Taipei-listed shares are up roughly 45% over the past six months and closed July 9 at NT$2,415 — less than 4% below the record high of NT$2,510 set on June 22. The stock heads into this report priced for continued AI strength. Near-term flows, however, have turned cautious: by our tracking of TWSE data, foreign investors sold roughly NT$47 billion net across the market on July 9 alone, with TSMC bearing the largest single-stock share of it (a net -12.7 million shares that session), and TAIFEX data shows foreign investors carrying a sizable net short position in TAIEX futures. That combination — a stock near all-time highs with the marginal investor hedged — is exactly the setup in which guidance surprises, in either direction, get amplified.
Key dates
- June monthly revenue: statutory deadline July 10 — the disclosure lands on TWSE/MOPS
- Q2 earnings conference: Thursday, July 16, 14:00 Taipei time — press release and materials at investor.tsmc.com
- Quiet period: July 6–15, so expect no management commentary before the call
- ADR holders: TSM trades the same day’s US session, hours after Taipei has already voted on the numbers
Sources
- TSMC Q1 2026 results and Q2 guidance — official release (SEC Form 6-K / TSMC IR)
- Monthly revenue filings — TWSE OpenAPI / MOPS
- Institutional flow data — Taiwan Stock Exchange, TAIFEX (our daily tracking)
Disclaimer: This is an information and analysis publication, not investment advice. See our Methodology for data sources, standards, and our corrections policy.