Four in a row: TAIEX back above 46,000
The TAIEX climbed 503.41 points, or 1.11%, to close at 46,021.48 on Thursday, its fourth consecutive advance and a reclaim of the 46,000 line, on heavy turnover of NT$1.0498 trillion. The setup was handed to Taipei overnight: US July CPI printed at 3.4% year-on-year with core at 2.5%, both matching forecasts and easing rate worries, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallied 2.49% on AI server and chip demand themes running through earnings from NVIDIA, CoreWeave and Supermicro. The S&P 500 added a quieter 0.26% to 7,748.50, and S&P futures ticked up another 0.11% to around 7,779 during Asian hours, keeping the backdrop supportive into the 13:30 close.
Semis lead, Hon Hai sits out
The TWSE Semiconductor sub-index rose 1.35%, comfortably ahead of Shipping (+0.38%) and Financials & Insurance (+0.27%). TSMC added 0.83% to NT$2,435, doing the index heavy lifting by sheer weight, but the standout was MediaTek, up 5.23% to NT$4,225. UMC gained 1.22% to NT$124.50.
The conspicuous absentee was Hon Hai, down 2.96% to NT$262 on profit-taking — this despite the company posting Q2 EPS of NT$4.27 and first-half EPS of NT$7.84. On Wednesday’s TWSE valuation sheet the stock traded at 19.2x earnings with a 2.66% yield, hardly stretched next to MediaTek’s 66.3x, so Thursday’s fade reads as positioning rather than a re-rating.
Breadth beyond the mega-caps was helped by MSCI’s quarterly rebalancing taking effect: Nanya Technology surged 6.53%, with fellow Global Standard Index additions Winbond, Phison, Kinsus, Nan Ya PCB and Taiwan Union Technology all firmer. Passive-component leader Yageo hit its daily limit-up, dragging related suppliers along, while AI-server names Asustek and Asia Vital Components also ran.
Institutional flows: foreigners buy NT$75.7 billion
| Investor group (Aug 13) | Net trading value |
|---|---|
| Foreign investors | +NT$75.69B (net buy) |
| Investment trusts | ~flat (marginal net buy of NT$970,000) |
| Dealers (proprietary + hedge) | +NT$15.06B (net buy) |
| Three institutions combined | +NT$90.76B |
Foreign investors were unambiguously the day’s engine, net buying NT$75.69 billion of cash equities. Dealers added NT$15.06 billion, of which NT$11.8 billion was hedge-book buying against NT$3.3 billion of outright proprietary purchases — consistent with the derivatives desks chasing the tape rather than leading it. Domestic investment trusts were effectively absent, a pattern worth tracking if this rally is to broaden beyond foreign sponsorship.
Positioning: cash buying against a still-short futures book
A necessary caveat: TAIFEX data run a session behind, so the following describes positioning as of Wednesday’s close, not Thursday’s. Foreign investors carried a net short of 86,633 contracts in TAIEX futures open interest, having trimmed only modestly on the day (net volume +2,245 contracts). The options put/call ratio stood at 106.06% on open interest and 108.38% on volume. If Thursday’s aggressive cash buying was accompanied by futures short-covering, we will only see it in Friday’s release — and with final settlement for the August contract landing next Wednesday, August 19, that print matters.
Taiwan’s three leverage channels, kept separate as always: the retail margin-loan balance (leveraged longs) rose NT$3.93 billion to NT$548.1 billion as of Wednesday — mild retail re-leveraging, nothing frothy. In the institutional short channel, SBL balances rose in 465 shortable issues and fell in 394, but the large caps skewed clearly toward covering as of Wednesday: Hon Hai’s SBL balance fell 5.71 million shares, UMC’s fell 4.75 million, Delta Electronics’ fell 1.76 million, and TSMC’s slipped 273,000. MediaTek’s was essentially unchanged (+6,000 shares) heading into Thursday’s 5.23% pop.
The ADR gap and the currency
TSMC’s ADR closed at $429.15 in Wednesday’s US session, about 13.4% above Thursday’s Taipei close on a share-adjusted basis. The premium itself is structural — roughly 15–25% in recent years, sustained by limited fungibility — and the two closes come from different sessions, so the level signals nothing on its own. What is mildly notable is that 13.4% sits below the recent range, partly a mechanical effect of Taipei rallying after New York closed; whether the gap re-widens in Thursday-night US trading is the cleaner read.
USD/TWD eased 0.15% to 32.16 at Thursday’s close, with bank spot rates confined to a 32.11–32.26 band — a marginally firmer NT dollar, orderly enough not to complicate the foreign-inflow story.
What to watch
- Friday’s TAIFEX release: whether the foreign net short of 86,633 TX contracts gets covered following Thursday’s NT$75.69 billion cash buy — with August final settlement six days out on Wednesday, August 19.
- MSCI follow-through: whether the six Global Standard additions (Nanya Tech, Winbond, Phison, Kinsus, Nan Ya PCB, TUC) hold their rebalance-day gains once the passive flow is done.
- Domestic participation: investment trusts sat out Thursday’s move and retail margin is only creeping higher (+NT$3.93 billion); a durable leg above 46,000 likely needs more than foreign money alone.
Disclaimer: This is an information and analysis publication, not investment advice. See our Methodology for data sources, standards, and our corrections policy.